World Cup 2026

Tournament Simulator

Who wins World Cup 2026?

We run a Monte Carlo simulation of every remaining match 20,000 times, using our model's match probabilities. Each row is a nation's chance to reach every stage and lift the trophy.

Favourite

USA

8.8% to win

#	Team	Grp	1st	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	🏆 ▾
1	USA	B	100.0%	100.0%	66.6%	40.6%	24.4%	14.7%	8.8%
2	France	K	100.0%	100.0%	70.3%	41.3%	22.6%	12.5%	7.1%
3	Argentina	A	100.0%	100.0%	70.3%	36.3%	20.2%	12.1%	6.3%
4	England	H	100.0%	100.0%	59.1%	32.2%	16.7%	10.0%	5.2%
5	Belgium	C	100.0%	100.0%	55.0%	31.4%	17.6%	9.1%	5.0%
6	Mexico	J	100.0%	100.0%	57.2%	32.0%	16.2%	9.0%	4.9%
7	Netherlands	L	100.0%	100.0%	52.6%	30.3%	19.0%	9.7%	4.9%
8	Morocco	E	–	100.0%	49.9%	26.9%	14.6%	8.4%	4.5%
9	Canada	D	–	100.0%	50.1%	27.4%	14.8%	8.6%	4.4%
10	Ivory Coast	I	–	100.0%	47.4%	26.1%	15.5%	7.6%	3.7%
11	Spain	F	100.0%	100.0%	57.7%	28.9%	14.5%	6.8%	3.4%
12	Colombia	G	100.0%	100.0%	55.5%	27.5%	13.0%	6.5%	3.4%
13	Germany	I	100.0%	100.0%	52.4%	26.5%	12.4%	6.7%	3.2%
14	Brazil	E	100.0%	100.0%	55.1%	25.6%	14.6%	6.8%	3.0%
15	Cape Verde Islands	F	–	100.0%	50.8%	23.0%	11.6%	5.9%	3.0%
16	Portugal	G	–	100.0%	53.4%	24.8%	12.4%	5.7%	2.9%
17	Bosnia & Herzegovina	D	–	100.0%	45.0%	23.7%	12.0%	5.8%	2.8%
18	Egypt	C	–	100.0%	49.2%	21.7%	10.9%	5.3%	2.7%
19	Austria	A	–	100.0%	53.2%	31.6%	14.3%	6.1%	2.6%
20	Japan	L	–	100.0%	47.6%	22.7%	10.1%	5.2%	2.4%
21	Norway	K	–	100.0%	42.9%	21.1%	9.3%	4.3%	2.0%
22	Croatia	H	–	100.0%	46.8%	26.0%	11.2%	4.5%	1.9%
23	Australia	B	–	100.0%	46.6%	20.1%	9.3%	3.9%	1.8%
24	Congo DR	G	–	100.0%	40.9%	18.6%	7.7%	3.9%	1.7%
25	Ghana	H	–	100.0%	45.0%	19.6%	9.8%	4.0%	1.7%
26	Sweden	L	–	100.0%	44.5%	19.5%	8.3%	3.6%	1.6%
27	Senegal	K	–	100.0%	33.4%	14.7%	6.4%	2.8%	1.3%
28	Ecuador	I	–	100.0%	42.2%	16.9%	7.6%	2.8%	1.2%
29	Algeria	A	–	100.0%	51.6%	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	1.0%
30	Switzerland	D	100.0%	100.0%	48.5%	20.1%	7.3%	2.4%	0.8%
31	Paraguay	B	–	100.0%	29.7%	9.5%	3.4%	1.4%	0.5%
32	South Africa	J	–	100.0%	29.7%	11.2%	3.9%	1.2%	0.4%
33	South Korea	J	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
34	Jordan	A	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
35	Tunisia	L	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
36	Iraq	K	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
37	Czechia	J	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
38	Curaçao	I	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
39	Panama	H	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
40	Türkiye	B	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
41	Uzbekistan	G	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
42	Uruguay	F	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
43	Saudi Arabia	F	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
44	Scotland	E	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
45	Iran	C	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
46	Haiti	E	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
47	Qatar	D	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
48	New Zealand	C	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Method: Each remaining group match is drawn from a Poisson model built on our stored match probabilities (completed matches are locked to their real result). Group standings then feed a knockout bracket — the 12 group winners, 12 runners-up and 8 best third-placed teams — resolved from team strength ratings fitted to the same model. The bracket uses a balanced seeding model; real FIFA knockout pairings are substituted once published. Last updated 16 Oct 2026, 06:40 over 20,000 simulations.