World Cup 2026

Tournament Simulator

Who wins World Cup 2026?

We run a Monte Carlo simulation of every remaining match 20,000 times, using our model's match probabilities. Each row is a nation's chance to reach every stage and lift the trophy.

Favourite

USA

9.2% to win

#	Team	Grp	1st	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	🏆 ▾
1	USA	B	100.0%	100.0%	66.7%	40.1%	24.3%	14.7%	9.2%
2	France	K	100.0%	100.0%	70.4%	41.1%	23.1%	12.7%	7.2%
3	Argentina	A	100.0%	100.0%	70.2%	36.6%	20.3%	12.4%	6.5%
4	Netherlands	L	100.0%	100.0%	53.3%	30.1%	18.9%	9.7%	5.2%
5	Belgium	C	100.0%	100.0%	55.5%	32.2%	17.8%	9.2%	5.0%
6	England	H	100.0%	100.0%	59.2%	32.5%	16.8%	9.9%	4.9%
7	Mexico	J	100.0%	100.0%	56.8%	31.3%	15.8%	8.4%	4.5%
8	Canada	D	–	100.0%	51.4%	27.9%	15.7%	9.0%	4.5%
9	Morocco	E	–	100.0%	48.6%	26.0%	14.1%	7.9%	4.1%
10	Ivory Coast	I	–	100.0%	46.7%	25.8%	15.7%	7.7%	3.7%
11	Spain	F	100.0%	100.0%	58.1%	29.2%	14.5%	7.0%	3.5%
12	Germany	I	100.0%	100.0%	52.5%	26.1%	12.2%	6.7%	3.3%
13	Brazil	E	100.0%	100.0%	55.0%	25.9%	14.5%	6.8%	3.1%
14	Cape Verde Islands	F	–	100.0%	51.1%	23.7%	12.0%	6.0%	3.1%
15	Colombia	G	100.0%	100.0%	54.0%	27.0%	12.6%	6.3%	3.0%
16	Portugal	G	–	100.0%	54.2%	25.0%	12.2%	5.8%	2.9%
17	Bosnia & Herzegovina	D	–	100.0%	44.5%	23.5%	11.8%	5.6%	2.8%
18	Austria	A	–	100.0%	54.2%	32.5%	14.8%	6.5%	2.8%
19	Egypt	C	–	100.0%	48.9%	22.0%	11.1%	5.5%	2.7%
20	Japan	L	–	100.0%	47.5%	22.4%	9.8%	5.0%	2.3%
21	Norway	K	–	100.0%	43.2%	21.2%	9.3%	4.4%	2.0%
22	Croatia	H	–	100.0%	45.9%	25.9%	11.2%	4.4%	2.0%
23	Sweden	L	–	100.0%	46.0%	20.6%	8.6%	3.9%	1.9%
24	Congo DR	G	–	100.0%	40.8%	19.0%	8.0%	3.9%	1.8%
25	Australia	B	–	100.0%	45.8%	19.3%	8.8%	3.5%	1.6%
26	Ghana	H	–	100.0%	45.0%	19.8%	9.4%	3.8%	1.5%
27	Ecuador	I	–	100.0%	41.8%	16.8%	7.8%	3.1%	1.2%
28	Senegal	K	–	100.0%	33.3%	14.1%	6.4%	2.6%	1.2%
29	Algeria	A	–	100.0%	52.5%	22.7%	8.6%	2.9%	1.0%
30	Switzerland	D	100.0%	100.0%	47.5%	19.0%	6.9%	2.3%	0.7%
31	South Africa	J	–	100.0%	29.6%	11.4%	4.0%	1.3%	0.5%
32	Paraguay	B	–	100.0%	29.8%	9.5%	3.2%	1.3%	0.4%
33	Iraq	K	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
34	Jordan	A	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
35	Tunisia	L	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
36	South Korea	J	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
37	Panama	H	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
38	Czechia	J	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
39	Türkiye	B	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
40	Curaçao	I	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
41	Uzbekistan	G	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
42	Uruguay	F	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
43	Iran	C	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
44	Saudi Arabia	F	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
45	New Zealand	C	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
46	Scotland	E	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
47	Haiti	E	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
48	Qatar	D	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Method: Each remaining group match is drawn from a Poisson model built on our stored match probabilities (completed matches are locked to their real result). Group standings then feed a knockout bracket — the 12 group winners, 12 runners-up and 8 best third-placed teams — resolved from team strength ratings fitted to the same model. The bracket uses a balanced seeding model; real FIFA knockout pairings are substituted once published. Last updated 25 Jul 2026, 05:45 over 20,000 simulations.