World Cup 2026

Tournament Simulator

Who wins World Cup 2026?

We run a Monte Carlo simulation of every remaining match 20,000 times, using our model's match probabilities. Each row is a nation's chance to reach every stage and lift the trophy.

Favourite

USA

7.2% to win

#	Team	Grp	1st	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	🏆 ▾
1	USA	B	42.4%	83.6%	52.0%	31.7%	19.7%	11.9%	7.2%
2	Uruguay	F	42.2%	83.3%	52.1%	31.7%	19.0%	11.5%	6.8%
3	Netherlands	L	42.1%	83.8%	51.6%	31.1%	18.8%	11.4%	6.7%
4	Morocco	E	42.4%	83.7%	52.0%	31.6%	19.1%	11.4%	6.5%
5	Canada	D	41.7%	82.9%	51.0%	31.2%	18.6%	11.0%	6.4%
6	England	H	36.0%	78.4%	45.6%	25.9%	14.4%	8.1%	4.4%
7	Belgium	C	36.2%	79.0%	45.9%	26.2%	14.7%	8.0%	4.3%
8	Mexico	J	33.6%	76.2%	42.9%	23.6%	12.5%	6.7%	3.6%
9	South Africa	J	26.8%	69.8%	36.2%	18.2%	9.0%	4.3%	2.1%
10	Australia	B	23.6%	68.4%	34.2%	16.4%	7.9%	3.8%	1.9%
11	Congo DR	G	25.3%	67.2%	32.9%	15.9%	7.7%	3.7%	1.7%
12	New Zealand	C	24.1%	67.2%	32.3%	15.5%	7.5%	3.6%	1.7%
13	Portugal	G	24.9%	67.0%	32.7%	16.1%	7.6%	3.6%	1.7%
14	Senegal	K	25.8%	66.9%	33.1%	15.8%	7.5%	3.5%	1.7%
15	Iraq	K	24.4%	66.8%	33.1%	16.2%	7.9%	3.7%	1.7%
16	Bosnia & Herzegovina	D	23.4%	67.7%	32.8%	16.3%	7.5%	3.5%	1.7%
17	Haiti	E	22.7%	67.5%	32.9%	15.9%	7.6%	3.5%	1.7%
18	Türkiye	B	22.7%	67.7%	33.6%	16.3%	7.8%	3.6%	1.6%
19	Colombia	G	24.9%	67.3%	32.7%	15.5%	7.3%	3.4%	1.6%
20	Sweden	L	23.4%	67.9%	33.7%	16.2%	7.8%	3.7%	1.6%
21	Cape Verde Islands	F	23.1%	68.3%	33.9%	16.4%	7.8%	3.7%	1.6%
22	Ivory Coast	I	24.3%	66.1%	31.5%	15.3%	7.3%	3.4%	1.6%
23	Iran	C	24.2%	67.5%	33.2%	15.8%	7.4%	3.4%	1.6%
24	Germany	I	25.3%	67.0%	32.0%	15.5%	7.5%	3.5%	1.6%
25	France	K	25.1%	67.0%	32.3%	15.6%	7.4%	3.7%	1.6%
26	Jordan	A	25.1%	66.8%	32.6%	15.7%	7.5%	3.5%	1.6%
27	Norway	K	24.7%	67.0%	32.3%	15.8%	7.5%	3.6%	1.6%
28	Argentina	A	24.9%	66.6%	33.0%	15.6%	7.4%	3.5%	1.6%
29	Qatar	D	23.1%	67.5%	33.3%	16.3%	7.6%	3.5%	1.6%
30	Tunisia	L	23.1%	67.8%	33.2%	15.8%	7.7%	3.4%	1.6%
31	Austria	A	25.1%	67.5%	33.4%	15.9%	7.4%	3.4%	1.5%
32	Panama	H	24.1%	67.1%	33.2%	15.7%	7.4%	3.4%	1.5%
33	Ecuador	I	25.2%	67.1%	32.0%	15.4%	7.4%	3.2%	1.5%
34	Algeria	A	24.9%	67.1%	32.9%	15.8%	7.3%	3.2%	1.5%
35	Curaçao	I	25.2%	67.5%	32.6%	15.5%	7.5%	3.5%	1.5%
36	Uzbekistan	G	25.0%	66.1%	32.1%	15.9%	7.5%	3.4%	1.5%
37	Spain	F	23.3%	67.2%	32.3%	15.5%	7.2%	3.4%	1.5%
38	Scotland	E	23.3%	67.5%	32.9%	15.9%	7.1%	3.3%	1.4%
39	Ghana	H	24.6%	67.7%	32.9%	15.5%	7.1%	3.3%	1.4%
40	Czech Republic	J	22.1%	63.8%	30.4%	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	1.3%
41	South Korea	J	17.6%	56.8%	24.4%	10.1%	4.2%	1.8%	0.8%
42	Croatia	H	15.2%	53.6%	21.9%	8.9%	3.4%	1.4%	0.5%
43	Egypt	C	15.4%	53.5%	22.2%	9.0%	3.6%	1.2%	0.4%
44	Brazil	E	11.6%	46.9%	17.1%	6.3%	2.2%	0.9%	0.3%
45	Switzerland	D	11.8%	48.1%	18.2%	6.8%	2.3%	0.8%	0.3%
46	Japan	L	11.3%	45.9%	16.5%	5.9%	2.2%	0.8%	0.3%
47	Paraguay	B	11.3%	46.2%	17.3%	6.1%	2.2%	0.8%	0.3%
48	Saudi Arabia	F	11.3%	46.7%	17.2%	6.2%	2.3%	0.7%	0.2%

Method: Each remaining group match is drawn from a Poisson model built on our stored match probabilities (completed matches are locked to their real result). Group standings then feed a knockout bracket — the 12 group winners, 12 runners-up and 8 best third-placed teams — resolved from team strength ratings fitted to the same model. The bracket uses a balanced seeding model; real FIFA knockout pairings are substituted once published. Last updated 10 Jun 2026, 22:17 over 20,000 simulations.