World Cup 2026

Tournament Simulator

Who wins World Cup 2026?

We run a Monte Carlo simulation of every remaining match 20,000 times, using our model's match probabilities. Each row is a nation's chance to reach every stage and lift the trophy.

Favourite

USA

8.8% to win

#	Team	Grp	1st	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	🏆 ▾
1	USA	B	100.0%	100.0%	66.6%	40.2%	24.1%	14.4%	8.8%
2	France	K	100.0%	100.0%	70.0%	41.5%	23.1%	12.7%	7.2%
3	Argentina	A	100.0%	100.0%	70.5%	37.2%	20.9%	12.7%	6.7%
4	England	H	100.0%	100.0%	58.9%	32.5%	16.9%	10.0%	5.3%
5	Netherlands	L	100.0%	100.0%	52.3%	30.5%	18.8%	9.5%	5.0%
6	Belgium	C	100.0%	100.0%	55.6%	31.7%	17.7%	8.9%	4.8%
7	Canada	D	–	100.0%	50.6%	27.4%	14.5%	8.3%	4.6%
8	Mexico	J	100.0%	100.0%	56.6%	31.1%	15.8%	8.2%	4.3%
9	Morocco	E	–	100.0%	49.4%	26.3%	13.6%	7.7%	4.0%
10	Ivory Coast	I	–	100.0%	47.7%	26.4%	16.1%	8.0%	3.8%
11	Spain	F	100.0%	100.0%	58.3%	29.4%	14.5%	7.0%	3.4%
12	Cape Verde Islands	F	–	100.0%	51.8%	24.0%	12.2%	6.2%	3.3%
13	Colombia	G	100.0%	100.0%	55.4%	27.3%	12.9%	6.3%	3.2%
14	Portugal	G	–	100.0%	54.1%	25.3%	12.8%	6.2%	3.1%
15	Germany	I	100.0%	100.0%	52.4%	25.7%	12.5%	6.7%	3.1%
16	Brazil	E	100.0%	100.0%	55.1%	25.0%	14.6%	6.8%	3.1%
17	Bosnia & Herzegovina	D	–	100.0%	44.4%	23.3%	11.7%	5.8%	2.9%
18	Austria	A	–	100.0%	53.7%	32.0%	14.2%	6.2%	2.7%
19	Egypt	C	–	100.0%	48.2%	21.7%	10.8%	5.3%	2.7%
20	Japan	L	–	100.0%	47.6%	22.5%	10.4%	5.3%	2.5%
21	Norway	K	–	100.0%	43.4%	21.4%	9.5%	4.3%	1.9%
22	Sweden	L	–	100.0%	44.6%	20.2%	8.5%	3.8%	1.8%
23	Croatia	H	–	100.0%	46.3%	26.0%	11.1%	4.5%	1.8%
24	Congo DR	G	–	100.0%	41.2%	19.2%	8.2%	4.3%	1.7%
25	Ghana	H	–	100.0%	44.6%	19.1%	9.4%	4.1%	1.7%
26	Australia	B	–	100.0%	45.9%	19.8%	8.9%	3.8%	1.7%
27	Ecuador	I	–	100.0%	42.1%	16.9%	8.0%	3.1%	1.2%
28	Senegal	K	–	100.0%	33.4%	14.2%	6.3%	2.7%	1.2%
29	Algeria	A	–	100.0%	52.3%	22.6%	8.7%	2.8%	0.9%
30	Switzerland	D	100.0%	100.0%	47.7%	19.3%	6.8%	2.2%	0.7%
31	South Africa	J	–	100.0%	30.0%	11.1%	3.7%	1.2%	0.4%
32	Paraguay	B	–	100.0%	29.5%	9.2%	3.1%	1.1%	0.4%
33	South Korea	J	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
34	Jordan	A	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
35	Tunisia	L	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
36	Iraq	K	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
37	Czechia	J	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
38	Curaçao	I	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
39	Panama	H	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
40	Türkiye	B	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
41	Uzbekistan	G	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
42	Uruguay	F	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
43	Saudi Arabia	F	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
44	Iran	C	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
45	Scotland	E	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
46	New Zealand	C	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
47	Haiti	E	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
48	Qatar	D	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Method: Each remaining group match is drawn from a Poisson model built on our stored match probabilities (completed matches are locked to their real result). Group standings then feed a knockout bracket — the 12 group winners, 12 runners-up and 8 best third-placed teams — resolved from team strength ratings fitted to the same model. The bracket uses a balanced seeding model; real FIFA knockout pairings are substituted once published. Last updated 17 Aug 2026, 05:45 over 20,000 simulations.